The Power of The Average

Anywhere you can find entrepreneurs, you will find revolutionaries, innovators, and a general air of healthy disdain for the status quo.

But with all the buzz about being different, it's important not to forget the awesome power of the average.

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Here's a scenario:

You are participating in a contest that involves guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar. The prize money is substantial; you absolutely must win this contest!

But how?


Well, you could attempt a series of extremely complex mathematical calculations... That could work... if you had magical powers of estimation that somehow allowed you to accurately determine airspace, arrangement, volume, and measurements based on sight and speculation alone (not likely).

Or... You could ask your all your family and friends (that are not in the contest themselves,) what they might guess; then take the average of their guesses and submit it as your own. Victory is yours.

Wait, what?

In 1978, Jack Treynor conducted an experiment in which he asked 56 students to guess the number of jelly beans in a large jar. The correct answer was 850 beans. Although the average individual's guess was wildly off mark, the average of their guesses put together came out to be 871- incredibly less than 3% off. Only one of the fifty-six people in the class made a better guess.

This was no fluke. This experiment has been repeated numerous times using different variables, with consistent results.

According to Brooke Harrington, a sociologist and professor at Brown University, the average of a group's guesses will almost always come significantly closer to the right answer than any one individual's guess. We all guess in such a precise distribution around the target, that collectively we hit it. It's the wisdom of crowds in effect. Additionally, it's important to note that the larger the group, the closer the collaborative guess becomes.

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Where Else You Can See this Principle at Play:

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire- Ask the Audience


If you've ever watched the game show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, you know the premise of the game- contestants are rewarded based on how many multiple choice questions they can answer correctly in a row. If they are unsure, they have three "lifelines" available to assist them.

1. 50/50 - two of the incorrect choices are eliminated, leaving the correct answer and one incorrect choice.
2. Phone a Friend - contestants can call a friend to ask for advice.
3. Ask the Audience - the audience votes for an answer, and the results are displayed electronically.

And if you've paid close attention, you may have noticed that the "Ask the Audience" lifeline seems to always be the most accurate, consistent, and reliable of the three. Well you wouldn't be imagining things. Statistics have shown that the audience is accurate over 90% of the time.


Human Attractiveness

The face on the right is a computer-generated composite image. It is created by using advanced software to morph, or average, the features of the other two faces together.

Researchers at the universities of Regensburg and Rostock in Germany, conducted a study in which they asked subjects to compare the attractiveness of various human faces to the attractiveness of a composite image of those faces averaged together.

What they found is that the averaged faces were rated as significantly more attractive than the original faces that compose them. And "the more original images were used to create the composite, the more attractive it was rated."

Does that sound familiar? Remember in the case of the jelly bean guessing, "The larger the group, the closer the collaborative guess becomes."

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Understanding Mean, Median, and Mode:

Given a set of numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...

Mean: The mean is the normal system of averaging. This is found by adding all the numbers together, then dividing by the amount of numbers in the set. In this case, 9.78.

Median: The median is the number that occurs in the very middle of the set. In this case, 5.

Mode: The mode is the number that occurs most often in the set. In this case, 1.

Please note that when we talk about averages, we are referring to the mean, not the median or mode!

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Using the Power of the Average to Your Advantage:

Once you understand and accept the presence of this phenomenon, the possibilities and the connections are endless.

In future articles, we will explore more specific applications and implications.

But for now, just keep in mind the next time that you make a difficult decision, not to underestimate the power of the average!


What do you think? Where else do you see the power of the average at play? Or perhaps is it all just an illusion? Join the discussion and leave a comment!